1) After spending some time at a large passenger airline, I would like to fly for FedEx as a captain. FedEx pays well and is a great airline to fly for once your seniority grows a bit. It also is about as secure as a job comes in the airline industry, with no pilot layoffs in the company's 30 year history.
2) FedEx is a cargo airline based in Memphis Tennessee. It is a subsidiary of FedEx Corporation and it operates from numerous hubs around the world. FedEx is the world's largest cargo airline. The airline began to thrive in the late 1970s and early 80s with the coming of deregulation. The job that I would like to work up to at FedEx is a wide body captain. The airline flies mostly at night, and in your early years it will be almost impossible to see the light of day when working, but I have read that it is possible to get a majority of day flights and to be home almost every night once your seniority has grown.
3) When the question of safety concerns on this job is raised, the first thing that comes to mind is pilot fatigue. Will the extensive night operations create a hazardous situation on board the aircraft? Or will I simply be able to get used to being awake and alert when the human body is supposed to be resting? Pilot fatigue is much harder to combat in the cargo industry than in the passenger industry due to the night operations and often uncertain schedules. The new crew rest regulations are not mandatory to the cargo carriers and are probably not going to be adopted by most cargo carriers. Another safety concern I have is the decrease in safety during night operations in general. Without the sun to allow us to accurately perceive the landscape that we are flying over (and hopefully not into), flight becomes more dangerous. As a pilot I will be more susceptible to illusions and spacial disorientation. One FedEx accident (flight 1478) occurred when a 727 clipped the tree line on approach to Tallahassee, resulting in destruction of the aircraft. One of the contributing factors to the accident was pilot fatigue, and I am willing to say that a night time illusion also played a part. A final concern is what some of the cargo on board might contain. It would not be difficult for a terrorist to put some sort of an explosive in an envelope and ship it overnight aboard a FedEx aircraft.
The only way that I believe I can mitigate these fatigue issues is to be as well rested as possible. This means not getting distracted by things going on during the afternoon before a night of flying. I would need to have a dark, quiet room to sleep in and sort of assist my body in forgetting that it is day time. I am sure many cargo pilots do this or at least attempt to do this already. I think that early in my time with the airline when I am on standby, occasional naps throughout an on-call day would help to mitigate fatigue late at night. Another way to help decrease this risk is with lots of caffeine during a flight period. As far as night illusions go, the best any pilot can do is to be aware of them and continuously keep them in mind throughout a night flight.
4)
*1) To me, professionalism is acting in a mature, business-like manner, abiding by regulations and company procedures, creating a good line of communication of flight related information between flight crew members, and treating co-workers and customers respectfully. Professionalism also includes doing nothing that you believe may degrade safety.
*2) A lack of professionalism was demonstrated in "Flying Cheap" in numerous different ways. The documentary touched on the first officer's illness on the day of the crash. She had a cold, and her and the captain of flight 3407 were discussing it as we heard on the CVR. She was also quite fatigued, having commuted earlier that day from Seattle and rested on a chair in the crew lounge. Both flying in a state of fatigue and with a cold show that the first officer had little concern for the safety of the passengers. These two factors can hugely impare/change cognitive ability and motivation in the cockpit. This attitude begins with management, however. It was said in the documentary that management would strongly "suggest" that the pilot still execute the flight if the pilot were to call in sick or claim fatigue.
A second example of a lack of professionalism was seen in one first officer's story. His aircraft was overweight and his captain told him to alter the load manifest to indicate that fewer adults and more children were on board. When he refused to do so, the captain did it himself. After the first officer shared this information with the FAA and the captain's certificate was revoked, airline management went as far as to protest the case in court and defend the captain. The only professional person here was the first officer. As we can see, the corporate attitude sets the tone for the rest of the operations of the company. In this case, their only goal was to complete all flights and get paid, and a compromise of safety seemed almost welcomed if it meant getting the job done.
*3) The first way that I plan to maintain or even expand on my level of professionalism when flying for FedEx is to always keep my morals in mind. I believe that I have strong morals, and I would never want to do something unsafe to others or unethical. I would always need to remember the enormous responsibility that I would have as a captain of the aircraft. Even though there are no paying passengers on board, there are still people on the ground all over the world, and an accident is likely to hurt or kill somebody. Any unsafe actions also put millions of dollars in aircraft and cargo at risk. In addition to this, I would create an open and comfortable environment for communication in the cockpit. I want my first officer to feel comfortable giving suggestions that may lead to a better outcome. Two heads are better than one when in the proper environment. My desire would never be to intimidate a first officer or to be the sole mind in the thought process.
Friday, February 10, 2012
Thursday, February 2, 2012
The Trend of Airline Merging
1) In April of 2001, American Airlines acquired Trans World Airlines, which operated its last flight on December 1, 2001. TWA was an airline that had been plagued by financial problems stemming from bad ownership since Howard Hughes became the majority stock holder in the 1930s. The nail in the coffin was the Carl Icahn era of ownership. Carl Icahn purchased the majority of stock in the airline in 1985. Icahn was a creditor of TWA, and was owed $190 million by the airline when they filed for bankruptcy in 1992. He made a deal before he left in 1993 that would get to him the money he was owed. He arranged a contract between Karabu Corp. (owned by Icahn) and TWA. Karabu would get a 45 percent discount on TWA ticket purchases, and was guaranteed a certain proportion of seats through 2003. Karabu then sold the tickets on LowestFare.com to consumers. The deal made millions for Icahn, but left TWA $540 million further in debt. Far in debt, TWA agreed to a merger with American Airlines, thinking it would be the best move to keep their employees working. More about this deal can be read at stlmag.com.
American Airlines promised to keep TWA's primary hub in St. Louis operating at its 2001 level. However, shortly after the acquisition, American began cutting back operations at St. Louis drastically and laid off half of the former TWA workers within two years, as a 2003 USA Today article states. Many TWA routes were cut. At the time of the publication of this article, all TWA flight attendants had lost their jobs, and 80% of the pilots had lost their jobs. American attributes the job cuts to the terrorist attacks of 2001, a SARS epidemic, St. Louis' close proximity to Chicago O'Hare airport, and a war. Laid off workers claimed that American made false promises to workers in order to get approval for the deal from Congress, and then quickly changed face. The trouble with the merger is that all of TWA's employees went to the bottom of the seniority list, below all American employees, which made it easy to lay them off first.
2) United and Continental Airlines announced in May of 2010 that they would join together to form United Continental Holdings. The two had been in negotiation a merger two years earlier. Not liking United's financial outlook, Continental backed out of the deal. After the following two years had passed however, negotiations began again and a fast merger agreement came together. The merger created the largest airline in the world, surpassing Delta. Both airlines were struggling financially due to the recession, and merged with the expectation that creating one airline would save a large amount of money in operating costs. United and Continental were a good match because most of their routes domestically and internationally did not overlap, similar to Northwest and Delta's merger. United had large international operations to Asia, while Continental had large international operations to Latin America. On November 30, 2011, United Continental was granted FAA permission to operate under one operating certificate. Parties from the two airlines agreed to operate under the Continental certificate.
Last summer, United announced that 100 to 200 furloughed United pilots would be offered jobs at Continental Airlines, and would eventually fly for United again once the two airlines began operating on the same certificate- Dallas News. This had already given the merger a positive outcome. The first of the growing pains that the newly formed airline faced was how to form a new pilot seniority list. Unlike Northwest and Delta, United and Continental had not come to an agreement on this topic before the acquisition took place. All flight attendants are currently on a combined seniority list. There were other smaller, seemingly laughable issues, like whether or not to continue the broadcast of ATC communication on United's ATC channel for the passengers (they did), class configurations domestically and internationally (will be standardized this year), and whether or not to continue serving Continental's famous Angus cheeseburgers on flights. Also as part of the merger, the Department of Justice required United Continental to lease 18 slots at Newark airport to Southwest Airlines as part of an anti-trust agreement. The two companies also decided on equal branding and representation, keeping the United name but using the Continental globe. The Continental airlines CEO took control of the newly formed airline, and equal representation from each airline exists on the company's board.
3) As stated by the New York Times, American Airlines filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy in an effort to shed its debt burden and to cut labor costs. American Airlines was the last major airline to file for bankruptcy. The company has been having trouble competing with the growing low-cost airlines and has seen a large decrease in revenue, causing them to borrow money from creditors. AMR Corp. filed having $5 billion of cash. In the short term, American will continue to operate normally, and passengers are being told not to worry. American Airlines ordered 460 new 737s and A320s earlier this year in an effort to cut fuel costs and rejuvenate their fleet. According to Yahoo Finance, American plans on cutting 15% of their workforce, or about 13,000 jobs in an effort to further cut costs.
U.S. Airways and Delta are reportedly interested in acquiring American Airlines. A merger with U.S. Airways would strengthen American's weak domestic network. This would in turn increase traffic through American's hubs to transatlantic and Latin American destinations. Wary passengers are choosing not to travel with American which is creating a decrease in traffic through their hubs. A merger with U.S. Airways would strengthen consumer confidence and boost this traffic. In addition, the merger would allow the new airline to pay back creditors more easily than American could do alone (Bloomberg). Delta Air Lines is also reported to have interest in a merger with American, but will not confirm. The merger would once again create the world's largest airline for Delta. It would leave no corner of the globe uncovered by the mega-airline. I think that Delta's acquisition of American is far less likely than a U.S. Airways acquisition. There is far more fact-based value in a merger with U.S. Airways than with Delta, and the dust from Delta's merger with Northwest has just settled. I do believe that a merger with U.S. Airways is likely. Given the modern day trend with airline merging, I give American a 50/50 chance of making it out alone. I do believe that they will do everything they can to avoid a merger with another airline.
4) I foresee a decrease in job opportunities as a pilot resulting from these mergers. A merger happens because at least one airline is in a bad financial situation, which causes layoffs to pilots and route trimming. When one airline merges with another, usually at least some routes that overlap and flights will be cut. I would forecast a lower amount of hiring with one larger airline as opposed to two or three smaller airlines. It would take fewer pilots to run the larger airline with fewer total flights than if the two were still independent. Another reason for less flights is decreased competition between airlines.
American Airlines promised to keep TWA's primary hub in St. Louis operating at its 2001 level. However, shortly after the acquisition, American began cutting back operations at St. Louis drastically and laid off half of the former TWA workers within two years, as a 2003 USA Today article states. Many TWA routes were cut. At the time of the publication of this article, all TWA flight attendants had lost their jobs, and 80% of the pilots had lost their jobs. American attributes the job cuts to the terrorist attacks of 2001, a SARS epidemic, St. Louis' close proximity to Chicago O'Hare airport, and a war. Laid off workers claimed that American made false promises to workers in order to get approval for the deal from Congress, and then quickly changed face. The trouble with the merger is that all of TWA's employees went to the bottom of the seniority list, below all American employees, which made it easy to lay them off first.
2) United and Continental Airlines announced in May of 2010 that they would join together to form United Continental Holdings. The two had been in negotiation a merger two years earlier. Not liking United's financial outlook, Continental backed out of the deal. After the following two years had passed however, negotiations began again and a fast merger agreement came together. The merger created the largest airline in the world, surpassing Delta. Both airlines were struggling financially due to the recession, and merged with the expectation that creating one airline would save a large amount of money in operating costs. United and Continental were a good match because most of their routes domestically and internationally did not overlap, similar to Northwest and Delta's merger. United had large international operations to Asia, while Continental had large international operations to Latin America. On November 30, 2011, United Continental was granted FAA permission to operate under one operating certificate. Parties from the two airlines agreed to operate under the Continental certificate.
Last summer, United announced that 100 to 200 furloughed United pilots would be offered jobs at Continental Airlines, and would eventually fly for United again once the two airlines began operating on the same certificate- Dallas News. This had already given the merger a positive outcome. The first of the growing pains that the newly formed airline faced was how to form a new pilot seniority list. Unlike Northwest and Delta, United and Continental had not come to an agreement on this topic before the acquisition took place. All flight attendants are currently on a combined seniority list. There were other smaller, seemingly laughable issues, like whether or not to continue the broadcast of ATC communication on United's ATC channel for the passengers (they did), class configurations domestically and internationally (will be standardized this year), and whether or not to continue serving Continental's famous Angus cheeseburgers on flights. Also as part of the merger, the Department of Justice required United Continental to lease 18 slots at Newark airport to Southwest Airlines as part of an anti-trust agreement. The two companies also decided on equal branding and representation, keeping the United name but using the Continental globe. The Continental airlines CEO took control of the newly formed airline, and equal representation from each airline exists on the company's board.
3) As stated by the New York Times, American Airlines filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy in an effort to shed its debt burden and to cut labor costs. American Airlines was the last major airline to file for bankruptcy. The company has been having trouble competing with the growing low-cost airlines and has seen a large decrease in revenue, causing them to borrow money from creditors. AMR Corp. filed having $5 billion of cash. In the short term, American will continue to operate normally, and passengers are being told not to worry. American Airlines ordered 460 new 737s and A320s earlier this year in an effort to cut fuel costs and rejuvenate their fleet. According to Yahoo Finance, American plans on cutting 15% of their workforce, or about 13,000 jobs in an effort to further cut costs.
U.S. Airways and Delta are reportedly interested in acquiring American Airlines. A merger with U.S. Airways would strengthen American's weak domestic network. This would in turn increase traffic through American's hubs to transatlantic and Latin American destinations. Wary passengers are choosing not to travel with American which is creating a decrease in traffic through their hubs. A merger with U.S. Airways would strengthen consumer confidence and boost this traffic. In addition, the merger would allow the new airline to pay back creditors more easily than American could do alone (Bloomberg). Delta Air Lines is also reported to have interest in a merger with American, but will not confirm. The merger would once again create the world's largest airline for Delta. It would leave no corner of the globe uncovered by the mega-airline. I think that Delta's acquisition of American is far less likely than a U.S. Airways acquisition. There is far more fact-based value in a merger with U.S. Airways than with Delta, and the dust from Delta's merger with Northwest has just settled. I do believe that a merger with U.S. Airways is likely. Given the modern day trend with airline merging, I give American a 50/50 chance of making it out alone. I do believe that they will do everything they can to avoid a merger with another airline.
4) I foresee a decrease in job opportunities as a pilot resulting from these mergers. A merger happens because at least one airline is in a bad financial situation, which causes layoffs to pilots and route trimming. When one airline merges with another, usually at least some routes that overlap and flights will be cut. I would forecast a lower amount of hiring with one larger airline as opposed to two or three smaller airlines. It would take fewer pilots to run the larger airline with fewer total flights than if the two were still independent. Another reason for less flights is decreased competition between airlines.
Saturday, January 28, 2012
The State of the Airliner Manufacturers
The Boeing 787 is a wide body, long-range commercial airliner aimed as a replacement for the 767, A300, and A330 families. The first 787 entered into service with All Nippon Airways on October 26, 2011. The 787 is the first airliner built out of a majority of composites and Boeing claims it to be 20% more fuel efficient than the aging 767.
The Airbus A380 is the largest passenger airliner in the world. Entering into service in October of 2007 with Singapore Airlines, the A380 is a long-range, wide body, complete double deck airliner that can carry between 525 and 853 passengers. Airbus was aiming to break Boeing's monopoly on the Ultra High Capacity market with the A380.
The Boeing 747-8 is an Ultra High Capacity revamped version of the 747-400. The first delivery of the 747-8F Freighter was made in October of 2011. The 747-8 features a fuselage stretch of 18 feet over the 747-400 to increase its passenger capacity and help it compete with the A380. It is now the longest passenger airliner in the world. The 747-8 features a redesigned wing, new flight control systems and flight deck technology, and new 787 engines to make it more efficient.
The A350 is a wide body long-range airliner currently in its design phase with Airbus. The A350 project was started in reaction to the 787. The two are very similar aircraft. The A350 also will be built out of a majority of composite materials, and offers up to an 8% increase in fuel efficiency over the 787. The A350 is slightly larger than the 787, offering 270-440 seats as opposed to 210-330 with the 787. It is scheduled for entry into service sometime in 2014.
Based on the current status of Boeing and Airbus and the current amount of orders for each, I am sad to say that I see Airbus taking the lead in the commercial jet industry. The first reason that I see Airbus taking the lead is due to the current status of the maunufacturers' real money makers- narrow body, single aisle, short to medium range airliners. Airbus is currently designing the A320neo. Virtually the only change from the traditional A320s is new upgraded engines. The new engines will offer a 15% increase in fuel efficiency over the current A320s. Since the A320 is in direct competition with the 737, it has already gained a huge lead in orders over the 737-900 and MAX series. Some loyal Boeing customers have placed orders for the A320neo. The A320neo family has become the fastest selling, most popular airliner in commercial aircraft history with nearly 1,200 orders since being introduced. After hesitating for some time on whether redesigning the 737 would be cost effective relative to a marginal increases in fuel efficiency over the current 737s, Boeing announced the 737 MAX in August 2011. The 737 MAX will directly compete with the A320neo. The 737 MAX is advertised to be 6% more fuel efficient than the A320neo. Boeing has already received 250 orders for the aircraft, but is far behind Airbus who already has 1,200 orders for the new A320. In the narrow body, revenue generating arena: advantage Airbus.
I would consider Boeing's 787 and Airbus' A350 to be evenly matched in their competition. While the 787 has about a 5 year head start on the A350, orders for the A350 are currently at about the same number that the 787 had at this point in its design. With the A350 being up to 100 seats larger than the rival 787, it could potentially compete with Boeing's 777 line as well. Other than the size difference though, the A350 and 787 are pretty much the same airplane, and the 787 is considerable cheaper (~$200 million vs. ~$260 million). I don't see the A350 taking a lead over the 787 unless you truly are getting THAT much more for your money. In the new long-range, composite wide body niche: slight advantage to Boeing.
In the jumbo-jet competition between the new 747-8 and the A380-800, I expect the A380-800 to outsell the 747-8I (passenger version) easily. The 747-8I has only 36 orders thus far as opposed to 253 for the A380-800. Even though Airbus has a head start over Boeing on this project, Airbus has a runaway lead with the A380. Boeing is advertising a 6% cost savings per seat-mile over the A380, but it appears the airlines would still rather have the extra passenger seating of the A380. Where Boeing is winning in this match-up is with the 747-8F, the freighter version. With the 747 being a long respected cargo workhorse and production of the A380-800F being delayed indefinitely, Boeing as a runaway lead with 70 orders, as opposed to 0 for the A380-800F. Airbus still wins the jumbo jet category, however. A more in depth analysis can be found here.
As I began this topic saying and now am supported with the above evidence, Airbus is already taking the lead in commercial jet manufacturing. In the years to come Airbus will surpass Boeing with the majority of the world's airliner fleet.
Comac is a Chinese government corporation aimed at building large airliners that will relieve the country's dependency on Airbus and Boeing. It is a brand new corporation founded in May of 2008. Its launch aircraft is the ARJ21, a short-range regional jet. The ARJ21 has been test flying already for a few years, and is planned to enter into service this year. The ARJ21 is essentially a small MD-90. Its design was derived from McDonnell Douglas' MD-90. Comac is also developing the C919, a narrow body mid range airliner most comparable to the 737 MAX and A320neo. The C919 is scheduled to make its first flight in 2014 and to enter into service in 2016.
If Comac ever does become a direct competitor with Boeing and Airbus, I don't believe it will be any time soon. Comac is still in its infant stages and has a lot to prove. In the short term, Comac's goal is to relieve China's dependency on foreign built aircraft. I think it will take many years for Comac to prove themselves safe within their own country in order for its aircraft to start selling in the global market. With their first aircraft, the ARJ21, Comac is not even competing with Airbus or Boeing, rather the ARJ21 will be taking sales away from Bombardier and Embraer within China. Thus far, only Chinese airlines have ordered any Comac aircraft. There is a lot to prove safety wise and reliability wise to the world's air carriers. Comac is also not coming out with any innovative new products. The ARJ21 is essentially using a shortened design of the MD-80 and 90 series airliners over 20 years later. The C919 is designed to be only as good as the A320neo and 737 MAX at best. Until they develop new innovative aircraft and prove the reliability of their already existing products, Comac will not be a competitor of either of the two giants. I do no believe that Comac is even on Airbus' or Boeing's horizon yet.
The Airbus A380 is the largest passenger airliner in the world. Entering into service in October of 2007 with Singapore Airlines, the A380 is a long-range, wide body, complete double deck airliner that can carry between 525 and 853 passengers. Airbus was aiming to break Boeing's monopoly on the Ultra High Capacity market with the A380.
The Boeing 747-8 is an Ultra High Capacity revamped version of the 747-400. The first delivery of the 747-8F Freighter was made in October of 2011. The 747-8 features a fuselage stretch of 18 feet over the 747-400 to increase its passenger capacity and help it compete with the A380. It is now the longest passenger airliner in the world. The 747-8 features a redesigned wing, new flight control systems and flight deck technology, and new 787 engines to make it more efficient.
The A350 is a wide body long-range airliner currently in its design phase with Airbus. The A350 project was started in reaction to the 787. The two are very similar aircraft. The A350 also will be built out of a majority of composite materials, and offers up to an 8% increase in fuel efficiency over the 787. The A350 is slightly larger than the 787, offering 270-440 seats as opposed to 210-330 with the 787. It is scheduled for entry into service sometime in 2014.
Based on the current status of Boeing and Airbus and the current amount of orders for each, I am sad to say that I see Airbus taking the lead in the commercial jet industry. The first reason that I see Airbus taking the lead is due to the current status of the maunufacturers' real money makers- narrow body, single aisle, short to medium range airliners. Airbus is currently designing the A320neo. Virtually the only change from the traditional A320s is new upgraded engines. The new engines will offer a 15% increase in fuel efficiency over the current A320s. Since the A320 is in direct competition with the 737, it has already gained a huge lead in orders over the 737-900 and MAX series. Some loyal Boeing customers have placed orders for the A320neo. The A320neo family has become the fastest selling, most popular airliner in commercial aircraft history with nearly 1,200 orders since being introduced. After hesitating for some time on whether redesigning the 737 would be cost effective relative to a marginal increases in fuel efficiency over the current 737s, Boeing announced the 737 MAX in August 2011. The 737 MAX will directly compete with the A320neo. The 737 MAX is advertised to be 6% more fuel efficient than the A320neo. Boeing has already received 250 orders for the aircraft, but is far behind Airbus who already has 1,200 orders for the new A320. In the narrow body, revenue generating arena: advantage Airbus.
I would consider Boeing's 787 and Airbus' A350 to be evenly matched in their competition. While the 787 has about a 5 year head start on the A350, orders for the A350 are currently at about the same number that the 787 had at this point in its design. With the A350 being up to 100 seats larger than the rival 787, it could potentially compete with Boeing's 777 line as well. Other than the size difference though, the A350 and 787 are pretty much the same airplane, and the 787 is considerable cheaper (~$200 million vs. ~$260 million). I don't see the A350 taking a lead over the 787 unless you truly are getting THAT much more for your money. In the new long-range, composite wide body niche: slight advantage to Boeing.
In the jumbo-jet competition between the new 747-8 and the A380-800, I expect the A380-800 to outsell the 747-8I (passenger version) easily. The 747-8I has only 36 orders thus far as opposed to 253 for the A380-800. Even though Airbus has a head start over Boeing on this project, Airbus has a runaway lead with the A380. Boeing is advertising a 6% cost savings per seat-mile over the A380, but it appears the airlines would still rather have the extra passenger seating of the A380. Where Boeing is winning in this match-up is with the 747-8F, the freighter version. With the 747 being a long respected cargo workhorse and production of the A380-800F being delayed indefinitely, Boeing as a runaway lead with 70 orders, as opposed to 0 for the A380-800F. Airbus still wins the jumbo jet category, however. A more in depth analysis can be found here.
As I began this topic saying and now am supported with the above evidence, Airbus is already taking the lead in commercial jet manufacturing. In the years to come Airbus will surpass Boeing with the majority of the world's airliner fleet.
Comac is a Chinese government corporation aimed at building large airliners that will relieve the country's dependency on Airbus and Boeing. It is a brand new corporation founded in May of 2008. Its launch aircraft is the ARJ21, a short-range regional jet. The ARJ21 has been test flying already for a few years, and is planned to enter into service this year. The ARJ21 is essentially a small MD-90. Its design was derived from McDonnell Douglas' MD-90. Comac is also developing the C919, a narrow body mid range airliner most comparable to the 737 MAX and A320neo. The C919 is scheduled to make its first flight in 2014 and to enter into service in 2016.
If Comac ever does become a direct competitor with Boeing and Airbus, I don't believe it will be any time soon. Comac is still in its infant stages and has a lot to prove. In the short term, Comac's goal is to relieve China's dependency on foreign built aircraft. I think it will take many years for Comac to prove themselves safe within their own country in order for its aircraft to start selling in the global market. With their first aircraft, the ARJ21, Comac is not even competing with Airbus or Boeing, rather the ARJ21 will be taking sales away from Bombardier and Embraer within China. Thus far, only Chinese airlines have ordered any Comac aircraft. There is a lot to prove safety wise and reliability wise to the world's air carriers. Comac is also not coming out with any innovative new products. The ARJ21 is essentially using a shortened design of the MD-80 and 90 series airliners over 20 years later. The C919 is designed to be only as good as the A320neo and 737 MAX at best. Until they develop new innovative aircraft and prove the reliability of their already existing products, Comac will not be a competitor of either of the two giants. I do no believe that Comac is even on Airbus' or Boeing's horizon yet.
Saturday, January 21, 2012
FAA's New Pilot Fatigue Regulations
The FAA's new flight and duty time regulations issued in December of 2011 encompass a number of new safety requirements that will help to combat pilot fatigue for Part 121 passenger operations. The new 10 hour minimum rest period will have the largest impact on safety, in my opinion. The existing regulations require only an 8 hour rest period for pilots before they have to report for duty again. This time period begins about 15-20 minutes after arrival once the crew is released from duty, depending on the airline. It does not include time to get out of the airport, transportation time to the hotel or your home, winding down time, or time to eat. On a R.O.N. (Remain Over Night) trip, this can easily leave the pilots with 5 hours or less to sleep. This is a huge issue in the regional airline industry. Currently, regional airline management is often giving flight crews the bare minimum amount of rest time legally required in order to get the aircraft flying again as soon as possible and to avoid higher costs. A flight crew may pull into the gate at 8:45 pm and have a 6:00 flight the following morning. The airline would probably require them to report by 5:00 am or so, perfectly legal. This requires the flight crew to wake up at, say, 4:00 am. They may have finally gotten to sleep at 11 o'clock or later the previous night. While many people may be able to function without a problem on 5 hours of sleep or less, I would hate to test out the sleep deprivation coping abilities of the crew while they are flying a highly sophisticated aircraft for up to 8 hours of flight time that day, and an even longer duty day.
To me, the new regulations for crew rest are a significant improvement over the current ones. The new regs will call for a 2 hour increase over the current amount of rest time required, bringing the total to 10 hours. The clock will still start after the crew is released from duty, but it also requires "an opportunity for 8 hours of uninterrupted sleep within the 10-hour rest period." This last statement will assure that pilots are better rested before taking the controls again. With a guaranteed 8 hour sleep period (ultimately optional to the pilot of course), the way I see it, there is a minimum gain of 2 hours of sleep per night which WILL make a huge difference. The full 10 hour period allows the pilot the opportunity to get to the hotel, eat, and relax for a little while and still get about 7 hours of sleep. The additional time will improve both mental and physical health. Although not ideal after one long stressful day and before another, this still meets the lower end of the average sleep requirements and is a major improvement over the current rules
While I have not been able to find any cost numbers specifically attributed to the increased rest period, the total cost to airlines is estimated to be $297 million. In the long run the benefits are estimated to be a median of $360 million. While the cost and benefit numbers seem arbitrarily created for those who only see dollar signs, I do believe that most of the cost will come from the increased rest period. Regional airlines will need to hire potentially 2-3,000 more pilots to fill the holes left in the schedule by the increasing rest demands and the hiring trend projected in the majors. Another effect that it may have on the airlines are less flights per day. With more required rest after a duty day is over, airlines will not be able to get airplanes in as late at night and out as early in the morning on a R.O.N. trip. Unless drastically increasing costs and wasting resources by coordinating additional flight crews and/or aircraft, this may lead to a small decrease in the number of flights operated per day, and would thus tighten the airline's profit margins. I do believe that these factors will have an impact on the traveler. The average airfare rose 8.5% in 2011, and further increases are expected this year. It is a reasonable guess that the hiring, training, and pay of these new pilots has been playing and will continue to play some role in these price increases.
I agree with the exemption of cargo carriers from these regulations. The regulations were created as a reaction to the fury of the general public after the Colgan crash in 2009, and was never intended to be aimed at cargo carriers as well. While pilots for on-demand cargo carriers work some of the hardest schedules on earth, the costs associated with implementing this new rule for such a carrier would be monumental. So many on-demand operations are struggling as it is and would not survive such a huge amount of hiring and training costs. It is the lack of a set schedule in on-demand operations that would make it near impossible to implement this rule. Each pilot would have such a narrow window to fly in with these regulations. Scheduled operators such as FedEx and UPS usually operate overnight during the body's circadian low points, but most of these pilots are used to that set schedule and theoretically it will not be a big fatigue problem.
By flying while fatigued, cargo pilots are putting a lot less at risk than if they were on a passenger airplane loaded with 150 passengers. A cargo plane that crashes due to pilot fatigue is only taking out the flight crew and the airplane (and hopefully no neighborhoods), and not putting so many passengers' lives at risk. The passenger airlines' monetary benefits from the increased crew rest are mostly attributed to the value of a human life, thus creating a large savings when not crashing. The same monetary benefits cannot be applied to a cargo airline carrying generally much less valuable cargo. This is a bit of a sick way to look at things, but it is the way the industry looks at it.
I have a solution to the fatigue problems in the cargo industry that would increase airline flight crew costs by less than one third, as opposed to twice the amount or more for the proposed regulation. In an on-demand operation when a flight crew is called to fly late in their on call time, or if a certain amount of flight time or legs are planned for, one additional pilot will be required for the flight. This allows each pilot to rest for about 1/3 of the flight time-a significant increase over no rest time. This regulation could include a table with such contributing factors as: hours into on call/duty time, total flight planned time, and number of legs planned for. I initially got this idea from trans-oceanic airline operations: Generally at least one extra flight crew member is required in order to reduce pilot fatigue.
To me, the new regulations for crew rest are a significant improvement over the current ones. The new regs will call for a 2 hour increase over the current amount of rest time required, bringing the total to 10 hours. The clock will still start after the crew is released from duty, but it also requires "an opportunity for 8 hours of uninterrupted sleep within the 10-hour rest period." This last statement will assure that pilots are better rested before taking the controls again. With a guaranteed 8 hour sleep period (ultimately optional to the pilot of course), the way I see it, there is a minimum gain of 2 hours of sleep per night which WILL make a huge difference. The full 10 hour period allows the pilot the opportunity to get to the hotel, eat, and relax for a little while and still get about 7 hours of sleep. The additional time will improve both mental and physical health. Although not ideal after one long stressful day and before another, this still meets the lower end of the average sleep requirements and is a major improvement over the current rules
While I have not been able to find any cost numbers specifically attributed to the increased rest period, the total cost to airlines is estimated to be $297 million. In the long run the benefits are estimated to be a median of $360 million. While the cost and benefit numbers seem arbitrarily created for those who only see dollar signs, I do believe that most of the cost will come from the increased rest period. Regional airlines will need to hire potentially 2-3,000 more pilots to fill the holes left in the schedule by the increasing rest demands and the hiring trend projected in the majors. Another effect that it may have on the airlines are less flights per day. With more required rest after a duty day is over, airlines will not be able to get airplanes in as late at night and out as early in the morning on a R.O.N. trip. Unless drastically increasing costs and wasting resources by coordinating additional flight crews and/or aircraft, this may lead to a small decrease in the number of flights operated per day, and would thus tighten the airline's profit margins. I do believe that these factors will have an impact on the traveler. The average airfare rose 8.5% in 2011, and further increases are expected this year. It is a reasonable guess that the hiring, training, and pay of these new pilots has been playing and will continue to play some role in these price increases.
I agree with the exemption of cargo carriers from these regulations. The regulations were created as a reaction to the fury of the general public after the Colgan crash in 2009, and was never intended to be aimed at cargo carriers as well. While pilots for on-demand cargo carriers work some of the hardest schedules on earth, the costs associated with implementing this new rule for such a carrier would be monumental. So many on-demand operations are struggling as it is and would not survive such a huge amount of hiring and training costs. It is the lack of a set schedule in on-demand operations that would make it near impossible to implement this rule. Each pilot would have such a narrow window to fly in with these regulations. Scheduled operators such as FedEx and UPS usually operate overnight during the body's circadian low points, but most of these pilots are used to that set schedule and theoretically it will not be a big fatigue problem.
By flying while fatigued, cargo pilots are putting a lot less at risk than if they were on a passenger airplane loaded with 150 passengers. A cargo plane that crashes due to pilot fatigue is only taking out the flight crew and the airplane (and hopefully no neighborhoods), and not putting so many passengers' lives at risk. The passenger airlines' monetary benefits from the increased crew rest are mostly attributed to the value of a human life, thus creating a large savings when not crashing. The same monetary benefits cannot be applied to a cargo airline carrying generally much less valuable cargo. This is a bit of a sick way to look at things, but it is the way the industry looks at it.
I have a solution to the fatigue problems in the cargo industry that would increase airline flight crew costs by less than one third, as opposed to twice the amount or more for the proposed regulation. In an on-demand operation when a flight crew is called to fly late in their on call time, or if a certain amount of flight time or legs are planned for, one additional pilot will be required for the flight. This allows each pilot to rest for about 1/3 of the flight time-a significant increase over no rest time. This regulation could include a table with such contributing factors as: hours into on call/duty time, total flight planned time, and number of legs planned for. I initially got this idea from trans-oceanic airline operations: Generally at least one extra flight crew member is required in order to reduce pilot fatigue.
Friday, January 13, 2012
Introductory Post
Things that make a lot of noise, go fast, and are complex in nature have fascinated me ever since I can remember. Also, operating machines and going through the procedures to do so have always been an interest of mine. Throw in the thrill and freedom of leaving the earth's surface, and the challenge that flying and learning to fly presents, and you have my passion for the only thing I can see myself doing for a living for the rest of my life: flying airplanes.
Several events quickly brought me to realize my passion for aviation. First, I took a sort of industrial technology class in the 7th grade which sampled several different technologies in numerous modules throughout the course of the semester. The module that I enjoyed the most was the one about airplanes. I learned the basic parts of an airplane and some basic aerodynamics. We also got to spend time flying an airplane on Microsoft Flight Simulator, which was very fun for me. Secondly, my dad started to rent an office at Grosse Ile Municipal Airport that overlooks the airfield. I started hanging around there a lot and making some pilot friends. My aunt and uncle also own a couple of airplanes, so I started to fly with them from time to time and I loved it. They have always been there to answer questions and promote aviation for me. Anyway I began to fly with a few other people at the airport and realized that I would like to get my private pilot certificate when I would be old enough, and in high school I realized that I would love flying as a profession.
Despite all of the uncertainty of the airline industry and all of the jokes I hear about flying for an airline, this is the type of flying I want to do. I like the structure of the airline world and the idea of fly for an airline, and I eventually would like to fly large aircraft to destinations around the world. The flight benefits aren't a bad perk either! Unless something drastically changes, I would like to spend my career working for the airlines.
My plan is like most other collegiate flight students these days. Once my flight training is complete I will probably flight instruct somewhere to build time (although bypassing this is very much a welcome idea). I would then like to get hired at a regional airline and fly there until I have enough time and experience to start applying to mainline carriers.
I would, however, like to remain active in the general aviation world. Flying small aircraft recreationally seems like it will be a nice, fun change of pace from the airline world. It provides an opportunity for some "real" flying and a good way to keep some of your skills and basic knowledge. It is always nice to go where you want when you want, and maybe have a little fun along the way. Although I would love to fly a big jet, there is nothing like flying a small single engine aircraft.
Some current topics that interest me are the new regulations coming into effect regarding crew rest and duty time, but more so the new regulations coming in regards to airline hiring minimums. It is something that will probably be affecting me in the not too distant future, so I would like to know all of the current information about it. Also I am interested in the NextGen air traffic control system and the progress the FAA is making with it. I can imagine that I will spend much of my career flying on the NextGen system. I am interested in the hiring boom that is supposed to be occurring over the next several years in the airlines, and how the bankruptcy of American Airlines and American Eagle, as well as other rumored bankruptcies expected in the regional airline world might effect that.
Several events quickly brought me to realize my passion for aviation. First, I took a sort of industrial technology class in the 7th grade which sampled several different technologies in numerous modules throughout the course of the semester. The module that I enjoyed the most was the one about airplanes. I learned the basic parts of an airplane and some basic aerodynamics. We also got to spend time flying an airplane on Microsoft Flight Simulator, which was very fun for me. Secondly, my dad started to rent an office at Grosse Ile Municipal Airport that overlooks the airfield. I started hanging around there a lot and making some pilot friends. My aunt and uncle also own a couple of airplanes, so I started to fly with them from time to time and I loved it. They have always been there to answer questions and promote aviation for me. Anyway I began to fly with a few other people at the airport and realized that I would like to get my private pilot certificate when I would be old enough, and in high school I realized that I would love flying as a profession.
Despite all of the uncertainty of the airline industry and all of the jokes I hear about flying for an airline, this is the type of flying I want to do. I like the structure of the airline world and the idea of fly for an airline, and I eventually would like to fly large aircraft to destinations around the world. The flight benefits aren't a bad perk either! Unless something drastically changes, I would like to spend my career working for the airlines.
My plan is like most other collegiate flight students these days. Once my flight training is complete I will probably flight instruct somewhere to build time (although bypassing this is very much a welcome idea). I would then like to get hired at a regional airline and fly there until I have enough time and experience to start applying to mainline carriers.
I would, however, like to remain active in the general aviation world. Flying small aircraft recreationally seems like it will be a nice, fun change of pace from the airline world. It provides an opportunity for some "real" flying and a good way to keep some of your skills and basic knowledge. It is always nice to go where you want when you want, and maybe have a little fun along the way. Although I would love to fly a big jet, there is nothing like flying a small single engine aircraft.
Some current topics that interest me are the new regulations coming into effect regarding crew rest and duty time, but more so the new regulations coming in regards to airline hiring minimums. It is something that will probably be affecting me in the not too distant future, so I would like to know all of the current information about it. Also I am interested in the NextGen air traffic control system and the progress the FAA is making with it. I can imagine that I will spend much of my career flying on the NextGen system. I am interested in the hiring boom that is supposed to be occurring over the next several years in the airlines, and how the bankruptcy of American Airlines and American Eagle, as well as other rumored bankruptcies expected in the regional airline world might effect that.
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