The State of the Airliner Manufacturers

The Boeing 787 is a wide body, long-range commercial airliner aimed as a replacement for the 767, A300, and A330 families. The first 787 entered into service with All Nippon Airways on October 26, 2011.  The 787 is the first airliner built out of a majority of composites and Boeing claims it to be 20% more fuel efficient than the aging 767.

The Airbus A380 is the largest passenger airliner in the world. Entering into service in October of 2007 with Singapore Airlines, the A380 is a long-range, wide body, complete double deck airliner that can carry between 525 and 853 passengers. Airbus was aiming to break Boeing's monopoly on the Ultra High Capacity market with the A380.

The Boeing 747-8 is an Ultra High Capacity revamped version of the  747-400. The first delivery of the 747-8F Freighter was made in October of 2011. The 747-8 features a fuselage stretch of 18 feet over the 747-400 to increase its passenger capacity and help it compete with the A380.  It is now the longest passenger airliner in the world. The 747-8 features a redesigned wing, new flight control systems and flight deck technology, and new 787 engines to make it more efficient.

The A350 is a wide body long-range airliner currently in its design phase with Airbus. The A350 project was started in reaction to the 787. The two are very similar aircraft. The A350 also will be built out of a majority of composite materials, and offers up to an 8% increase in fuel efficiency over the 787. The A350 is slightly larger than the 787, offering 270-440 seats as opposed to 210-330 with the 787. It is scheduled for entry into service sometime in 2014.

Based on the current status of Boeing and Airbus and the current amount of orders for each, I am sad to say that I see Airbus taking the lead in the commercial jet industry. The first reason that I see Airbus taking the lead is due to the current status of the maunufacturers' real money makers- narrow body, single aisle, short to medium range airliners. Airbus is currently designing the A320neo. Virtually the only change from the traditional A320s is new upgraded engines. The new engines will offer a 15% increase in fuel efficiency over the current A320s.  Since the A320 is in direct competition with the 737, it has already gained a huge lead in orders over the 737-900 and MAX series. Some loyal Boeing customers have placed orders for the A320neo. The A320neo family has become the fastest selling, most popular airliner in commercial aircraft history with nearly 1,200 orders since being introduced. After hesitating for some time on whether redesigning the 737 would be cost effective relative to a marginal increases in fuel efficiency over the current 737s, Boeing announced the 737 MAX in August 2011. The 737 MAX will directly compete with the A320neo. The 737 MAX is advertised to be 6% more fuel efficient than the A320neo. Boeing has already received 250 orders for the aircraft, but is far behind Airbus who already has 1,200 orders for the new A320. In the narrow body, revenue generating arena: advantage Airbus.

I would consider Boeing's 787 and Airbus' A350 to be evenly matched in their competition. While the 787 has about a 5 year head start on the A350, orders for the A350 are currently at about the same number that the 787 had at this point in its design. With the A350 being up to 100 seats larger than the rival 787, it could potentially compete with Boeing's 777 line as well. Other than the size difference though, the A350 and 787 are pretty much the same airplane, and the 787 is considerable cheaper (~$200 million vs. ~$260 million). I don't see the A350 taking a lead over the 787 unless you truly are getting THAT much more for your money. In the new long-range, composite wide body niche: slight advantage to Boeing.

In the jumbo-jet competition between the new 747-8 and the A380-800, I expect the A380-800 to outsell the 747-8I (passenger version) easily. The 747-8I has only 36 orders thus far as opposed to 253 for the A380-800. Even though Airbus has a head start over Boeing on this project, Airbus has a runaway lead with the A380.  Boeing is advertising a 6% cost savings per seat-mile over the A380, but it appears the airlines would still rather have the extra passenger seating of the A380. Where Boeing is winning in this match-up is with the 747-8F, the freighter version. With the 747 being a long respected cargo workhorse and production of the A380-800F being delayed indefinitely, Boeing as a runaway lead with 70 orders, as opposed to 0 for the A380-800F. Airbus still wins the jumbo jet category, however. A more in depth analysis can be found here.

As I began this topic saying and now am supported with the above evidence, Airbus is already taking the lead in commercial jet manufacturing. In the years to come Airbus will surpass Boeing with the majority of the world's airliner fleet.

Comac is a Chinese government corporation aimed at building large airliners that will relieve the country's dependency on Airbus and Boeing. It is a brand new corporation founded in May of 2008. Its launch aircraft is the ARJ21, a short-range regional jet. The ARJ21 has been test flying already for a few years, and is planned to enter into service this year. The ARJ21 is essentially a small MD-90. Its design was derived from McDonnell Douglas' MD-90. Comac is also developing the C919, a narrow body mid range airliner most comparable to the 737 MAX and A320neo. The C919 is scheduled to make its first flight in 2014 and to enter into service in 2016.

If Comac ever does become a direct competitor with Boeing and Airbus, I don't believe it will be any time soon. Comac is still in its infant stages and has a lot to prove. In the short term, Comac's goal is to relieve China's dependency on foreign built aircraft. I think it will take many years for Comac to prove themselves safe within their own country in order for its aircraft to start selling in the global market. With their first aircraft, the ARJ21, Comac is not even competing with Airbus or Boeing, rather the ARJ21 will be taking sales away from Bombardier and Embraer within China. Thus far, only Chinese airlines have ordered any Comac aircraft. There is a lot to prove safety wise and reliability wise to the world's air carriers. Comac is also not coming out with any innovative new products. The ARJ21 is essentially using a shortened design of the MD-80 and 90 series airliners over 20 years later. The C919 is designed to be only as good as the A320neo and 737 MAX at best. Until they develop new innovative aircraft and prove the reliability of their already existing products, Comac will not be a competitor of either of the two giants. I do no believe that Comac is even on Airbus' or Boeing's horizon yet.